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"(W)e need to disarm Saddam Hussein. He is a brutal, murderous dictator, leading an oppressive regime. We all know the litany of his offenses. He presents a particularly grievous threat because he is so consistently prone to miscalculation. ...And now he is miscalculating America s response to his continued deceit and his consistent grasp for weapons of mass destruction. That is why the world, through the United Nations Security Council, has spoken with one voice, demanding that Iraq disclose its weapons programs and disarm. So the threat of Saddam Hussein with weapons of mass destruction is real, but it is not new. It has been with us since the end of the Persian Gulf War." -- John Kerry, Jan 23, 2003
Could Clinton Drop Out on May 7?
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hillarynews
Joined: 24 Jan 2007
Posts: 2255
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 Posted: Thu Mar 27, 2008 3:00 pm Post subject: Could Clinton Drop Out on May 7? |
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 Could Clinton Drop Out on May 7?
By Andrew Romano NEWSWEEK - First came Super Tuesday, with 24 contests and nearly 1,700 delegates up for grabs. Then it was the Texas two-step and primaries in Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island on March 4. Now, according to Chris Bowers of Open Left, the latest, greatest Decision Day 2008 ® is May 6, when the good voters of North Carolina and Indiana cast their ballots for either the Hopemonger from Illinois or the Iron Lady from New York. "If Obama sweeps Indiana and North Carolina," writes Bowers. "The campaign is over."
Category: Top Story
By Andrew Romano NEWSWEEK - First came Super Tuesday, with 24 contests and nearly 1,700 delegates up for grabs. Then it was the Texas two-step and primaries in Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island on March 4. Now, according to Chris Bowers of Open Left, the latest, greatest Decision Day 2008 ® is May 6, when the good voters of North Carolina and Indiana cast their ballots for either the Hopemonger from Illinois or the Iron Lady from New York. "If Obama sweeps Indiana and North Carolina," writes Bowers. "The campaign is over." It's an interesting prediction. For starters, there's absolutely no chance that the curtain will fall earlier. Clinton currently boasts an average lead of 16 points in Pennsylvania, so despite the fervent finger-crossing of Obamaniacs nationwide, she ain't goin' nowhere before May. That said, the Indiana/North Carolina pairing not only represents a bigger delegate prize (187) than Pennsylvania (158), but it's also expected to be closer contest-meaning that the conflict-obsessed media will put more stock in the results. ("Something unusual appears to be developing in the Democratic presidential race in [Indiana]," wrote the Washington Post earlier this week. "A fair fight." Case in point.) Which is why an Obama twofer would signal Clinton's demise, according to Bowers. "May 6th is the first date when Obama can reach 1,627 pledged delegates, or 50% + 1 of pledged delegates," he says. "Right now, he needs 173.5 pledged delegates to reach 1,627, or 49.7% of the 349 to be determined between April 22 and May 6." In Bowers' view, if Obama can win half of the delegates at stake in Pennsylvania, Indiana and North Carolina, he will simultaneously capture the majority of pledged delegates-an important symbolic victory-and erase Clinton's Pennsylvania gains, forcing the New York senator to contemplate a "final option" that involves "winning the support of more than 70% of the remaining superdelegates." That, he says, "would be game, set, match."The only problem: it won't be. There are two reasons to be skeptical. One, it's far from certain that Obama will reach the 1,627 milestone on May 6. According to Slate's handy Delegate Calculator, if the returns in Pennsylvania and North Carolina hew to current polling averages, and Indiana results, as expected, in a tie, Obama would fall five or six short of the pledged-delegate majority. And while it's easy to imagine Obama exceeding this tally-the latest PPP poll predicts a 20-point win in the Tarheel State, for example, which would put him over the top-it's impossible to imagine Clinton actually conceding that such an accomplishment (or concern that her continued presence is hurting Obama for November) has any significance."This is a very close race and neither of us will reach the magic number of delegates," she told Time's Mark Halperin yesterday. "We're both going to be short, and when you think about the many millions of people who have already voted, we are separated by a relatively small percentage of votes. We're separated by, you know, a little more than a hundred delegates" As long as Clinton sets 2,025 (and not 1,627) as the finish line-and Florida and Michigan remain unresolved and the pledged-delegate/popular-vote disparity remains close-she'll stay in the race. And frankly, she has point. There's no precedent (see Kennedy in 1980 or Reagan in 1976) for a candidate with thousands of delegates, half the vote and rival who's yet to clinch the nomination to simply say "sayonara" in the midst of primary season.
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Source: The Hillary Project
Description: reporting the news about Hillary that the media refuses to |
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